By John J. Joex
Four genre series down so far (Stargate: Universe, Caprica, Medium, and Undecovers) and as we head into the New Year and the second half of the current season, it’s time to prep for more cancellations among the current batch of Science Fiction and Fantasy television shows. I warned early in the season that we could see a significant purge of genre shows, the Sci Fi-Pocalypse I call it, and I have seen nothing in the ratings results to sway my opinion that the landscape will change drastically by the end of the season. Most genre shows will be gone by the time May wraps up (some such as Smallville and Supernatural exiting on their own accord), and I don’t see the broadcast networks green-lighting too many new shows that would interest Science Fiction and Fantasy fans. The genre has just failed to sustain much of an audience the past five years apart from a few entries like Lost. And AMC’s The Walking Dead way outperformed all of the other Science Fiction and Fantasy shows during the first half of the season, including both cable and broadcast network entries. That will almost certainly help push the genre away from the broadcast networks (not a bad thing at all), but even the cable channels have struggled as we have seen with Syfy’s recent cancellations. So here’s a look at the remaining shows on the schedule and my estimation on their chances of surviving the carnage of the Sci Fi-Pocalypse:
Fringe (FOX): Current Cancellation Alert – Medium. As the season began, I figured this J.J. Abrams entry had a better than average chance of surviving to a fourth season. But its numbers (already somewhat marginal last season) began to decline and FOX made the decision to move the show to Fridays. They toyed with fans somewhat by mocking the “Friday Night Deathslot” label in a segment promoting the move, but I believe they were basically calling out viewers who cared and prodding them to tune in if they want the show to continue. This is still a high profile show and the strongest genre series on the broadcast networks and I have already elaborated on why it makes more sense for FOX to keep the show around, but it all comes down to the bottom line in the end. I would say that this one currently has less than a 50/50 chance of surviving.
Human Target (FOX): Current Cancellation Alert – Elevated. I’m not certain why FOX even brought this one back for a second season (though I’m glad they did), since they seem to have no commitment at all to it. I talked in more detail about its prospects last week, and unless this one really lights up the Nielsens when it moves to its post-American Idol berth later this month (assuming it survives that long), count it gone.
No Ordinary Family (ABC): Current Cancellation Alert – Medium. Early on this show was pulling just above mediocre ratings and was getting some good buzz (though I’m not certain why), but it really trailed off toward the end of Fall. If it turns its numbers around when it returns this month (unlikely), it has a chance, otherwise expect no hero’s ending for this one.
Nikita (CW): Current Cancellation Alert – Moderate. This series pulled passable numbers when it debuted, but saw its ratings decline as the season progressed. They plan on some retooling when it resumes with new episodes this month, but even the fifth place CW wants to see better numbers than it pulled in November.
Vampire Diaries (CW): Current Cancellation Alert – Low. This one is the only sure thing for renewal this season. It’s number dropped a bit from its first season, but it’s still doing great by CW standards.
Chuck (NBC): Current Cancellation Alert – Low. As usual, this show is still pulling mediocre at best numbers, but I’m guessing NBC keeps it around one more season to hit that magic 100 episode mark that the syndication market likes to see.
The Event (NBC): Current Cancellation Alert – Medium. When this one debuted last year, it looked like a potential early hit. But then its numbers began to drop fast and far. NBC is planning a “relaunch” of the series next month to re-energize interest in it, but it seems like a desperation move to me. Unless that generates some significant gains in the ratings, count it as one season and out.
Sanctuary (Syfy): Current Cancellation Alert – Low. This show has not done as well in the ratings as its previous two seasons, but it has still outperformed Stargate: Universe and Caprica and all indications point to Syfy wanting it back for a fourth season.
Mid-Season Entries:
V (ABC): Current Cancellation Alert Prediction – Elevated. This show, which returns for its second season this week, barely made the cut last year, and even though they have tried to generate some buzz by bringing back cast members from the original series (Marc Singer and Jane Badler), I can’t see that doing much to turn it fortunes around. Consider this one DOA.
The Cape (NBC): Current Cancellation Alert Prediction – Medium. NBC gives us another superhero show despite apparent waning interest in the sub-genre. Plus, co-star Summer Glau has not had a good track record with genre shows (Firefly, Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, Dollhouse). It definitely looks like it is worth checking out, though.
Game of Thrones (HBO): Current Cancellation Alert Prediction – Low. I’m guessing that if HBO is investing as much as they are in this production, then they will stay behind it for at least a year or so. And Summer series True Blood has thrived on that channel.
Being Human (Syfy): Current Cancellation Alert Prediction – Low. This seems to more closely fit the template of scripted shows that Syfy will support, so I expect it to have a good chance of survival if it produces at least passable numbers (like Warehouse 13 and Haven).
If all of the shows mentioned here with Cancellation Alerts above Low get the axe, that will have us going into the next Fall season with only six returning shows: Vampire Diaries, Chuck, Sanctuary, Being Human, Game of Thrones, and The Walking Dead (already renewed by AMC). That would be the lowest number of returning shows in several years and only one or two of those (The Walking Dead and Game of Thrones) really count as a strong genre entries (though Chuck fans might take exception to that). But this also points to a resurgence in off-network activity in the genre which is probably best since the broadcast networks have regularly shown that they do not really understand Science Fiction and Fantasy audience. Stay tuned to the Cancellation Watch column in the coming months as we track the ratings and update the status of all of the shows currently airing. And we will also bring you any cancellation announcements or foreboding signs as soon as we hear about them.
