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Cancellation Watch Mid-Week Update: Alcatraz Continues to Fall, Is It In Trouble?

admin — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 12:05:45 +0000

Cancellation Watch: Tracking the weekly ratings and the cancellation prospects of the science fiction and fantasy shows currently airing on broadcast and cable networks.

By John J. Joex

FOX’s Alcatraz took another drop in the Nielsens this past Monday, slipping to a 2.8 rating in the 18-49 demographic (down from a 3.0) with 8.4 million total viewers. So is that a sure sign that fans are jumping ship and this one will not make it past a half season run?

Not at all, at least not at this point.

It’s not uncommon for a show to trend downward after its premiere, especially one that has a serialized component to its story. Thus the decline is not unexpected, but the question is where does it stop. The series started out with a healthy 3.3 rating in the 18-49 demo and has since dropped off by 15%. That’s not too bad and neither is a 2.8 rating (at least these days it’s not). It’s also important to note that Alcatraz‘s latest numbers are only one tick behind it lead-in series, the venerable House. And it has so far performed well compared to the other shows on FOX. If it keeps dropping, then there will be some concern. But I would expect to see it level off pretty soon. As long as it stays above a 2.5 rating, then it should be okay. If it starts to go south of that, then it’s venturing into bubble territory.

ABC’s Once Upon A Time continued its up and down trend as it jumped to a 3.5 rating in the 18-49 demo (up from last week’s 3.2) this past Sunday with right at 11 million total viewers. It looks like this one will continue to fluctuate somewhere around the mid-threes and as long as it does it will be safe.

I will have the full ratings results for all of this week’s shows in the regular Monday column next week.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers

Cancellation Watch: Touch Scores a Win with Preview Airing

admin — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 14:11:53 +0000

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Cancellation Watch: Tracking the weekly ratings and the cancellation prospects of the science fiction and fantasy shows currently airing on broadcast and cable networks.

By John J. Joex

FOX’s latest genre series Touch, from Heroes creator Tim Kring and starring 24‘s Kiefer Sutherland, scored a big win in the Nielsens with its special preview airing this past Wednesday. The show pulled a 3.9 rating in the 18-49 demographic and 12 million total viewers. That gives this show bragging rights for the highest premiere of a genre series so far this season, out-pacing Once Upon A Time debut which pulled a 3.6 rating (although that one pulled more total viewers with just short of 13 million). The bad news, though, is that Touch will not be back until March 19th, taking over Alcatraz‘s Monday 9 PM EST timeslot when that show wraps up its first season run. So we will see then how much of the audience that tuned in for the preview returns more than a month and a half from now.

NBC’s Chuck had its series finale this past Friday, wrapping up that fan-favorite, but low-rated show after five seasons. The two hour finale averaged a 1.3 rating in the 18-49 demo, delivering a season high for the show in its last year. Over on FOX, Fringe edged up a tick opposite Chuck‘s swansong, pulling a 1.3 rating.

I covered Once Upon A Time and Alcatraz in my mid-week update last week and most of the other shows were preempted or in repeats this past week.

Following are the ratings results for all of the genre shows from this past week. In some cases, the numbers below are based on the preliminary returns and could change slightly when the final results are tallied.

Ratings Results for the Week of January 22nd:
Once Upon A Time (ABC Sun 8 pm) Rating: 3.2 | Trend: Down | Cancellation Alert: Low
The Walking Dead (AMC Sun 10 PM) Rating: On Hiatus | Trend: Down | Renewed
Alcatraz (FOX Mon 8 pm) Rating: 3.0 | Trend: Down | Cancellation Alert: Low
Being Human (Syfy Mon 9 PM) Rating: 0.7 | Trend: Down | Cancellation Alert: Low
Touch (FOX Wed 8 PM) Rating: 3.9 | Trend: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Low
Vampire Diaries (CW Thur 8 PM) Preempted | Trend: Down | Cancellation Alert: Low
Person of Interest (Repeat) (CBS Thur 9 PM) Rating: 2.1 | Trend: Up | Cancellation Alert: Moderate
Secret Circle (CW Thur 9 PM) Preempted | Trend: Down | Cancellation Alert: Moderate
A Gifted Man (Repeat) (CBS Fri 8 PM) Rating: 1.0 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: High
Nikita (Repeat) (CW Fri 8 PM) Rating: 0.4 | Trend: Down | Cancellation Alert: Elevated
Chuck (NBC Fri 8 PM) Rating: 1.3 | Trend: Up | Cancellation Alert: Final Season
Supernatural (Repeat) (CW Fri 9 PM) Rating: 0.4 | Trend: Up | Cancellation Alert: Low
Grimm (NBC Fri 9 PM) Preempted | Trend: Down | Cancellation Alert: Moderate
Fringe (FOX Fri 9 PM) Rating: 1.2 | Trend: Up | Cancellation Alert: Elevated

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers

Cancellation Watch Mid-Week Update: Alcatraz, Once Upon A Time Slip, But Not Bad

admin — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 14:34:11 +0000

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Cancellation Watch: Tracking the weekly ratings and the cancellation prospects of the science fiction and fantasy shows currently airing on broadcast and cable networks.

By John J. Joex

In its second week J.J. Abrams’ Alcatraz slipped in the Nielsens to a 3.0 rating in the 18-49 demographic (down from a 3.3) and it had nine million total viewers (down from ten million). But those numbers are no cause for alarm because show’s usually slide in the week following their premiere. If it continues to slip in the ratings, a common trend for serialized shows, there may be some concern. But it’s too soon to make any dire predictions at this point. I’m thinking as long as this one stays above a 2.5 rating, it should be okay. I will keep a close eye on its returns for the next few weeks to see if it shows any signs of weakening.

ABC’s Once Upon A Time slipped a little from the prior week, pulling a 3.2 rating in the 18-49 demo. But those are still strong numbers for the show, especially considering the competition it had from the NFL playoff game.

Over on Syfy, Being Human slipped some from its second season debut, pulling a 0.7 rating and 1.7 million total viewers. That’s still above its first season average, though, so it is doing okay.

I will have the full ratings results for all of this week’s shows in the regular Monday column next week.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers

Cancellation Watch: Person of Interest and Grimm are Surging

admin — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 14:59:04 +0000

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Cancellation Watch: Tracking the weekly ratings and the cancellation prospects of the science fiction and fantasy shows currently airing on broadcast and cable networks.

By John J. Joex

Two of this season’s new shows are showing some life in the ratings this mid-season. CBS’s Person of Interest pulled a 3.2 rating in the 18-49 demographic for a second week in a row and also drew 14.4 million total viewers this last Thursday. After that one’s somewhat lackluster ratings during the first half of the season, its fate seemed somewhat uncertain seeing as it airs on the top-rated network (and one that has shown little patience with genre shows). But it has done quite well in January so far and could be solidifying its position if it can keep up numbers like this. Over on NBC, Grimm returned this month with a slight dip from where it had been, but this past week it jumped up to a 1.8 rating with just under six million total viewers. Considering its Friday night timeslot (and the fact that it topped its hour last Friday), that’s definitely a step in the right direction for this show.

On Monday, Syfy’s Being Human returned with a strong performance, pulling a 0.9 rating and 1.8 million total viewers. That’s up considerably from the 0.6 rating it averaged during its first season. Canadian import Lost Girl debut in Being Human‘s lead-out slot pulling a 0.5 rating. As I mentioned in my mid-week update, that series is not as dependent on ratings in the U.S. because it is already heading to a third season up north (and I will not track it weekly in the chart here.). Chuck‘s second to last episode saw it rise to a season high of a 1.1 rating in the 18-49 demo. Fringe continues to languish, though, as its future remains in doubt. Also continuing to languish are all of the CW shows, with their “top rated” series Vampire Diaries sinking to a 1.1 rating this past week. The guys over at TV by the Numbers have pondered whether practically all of that network’s shows (except Vampire Diaries) should be considered at risk this season. The fact that the CW has ordered a record number of pilots definitely puts shows like Nikita, The Secret Circle, and even Supernatural on unsure footing.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers

Cancellation Watch Mid-Week Update: Alcatraz Debuts Strong, Outperforms Terra Nova Premiere

admin — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 13:57:20 +0000

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Cancellation Watch: Tracking the weekly ratings and the cancellation prospects of the science fiction and fantasy shows currently airing on broadcast and cable networks.

By John J. Joex

The latest offering from J.J. Abrams, FOX’s Alcatraz, got off to a good start Monday night as the two hour premiere pulled a healthy 3.3 rating in the 18-49 demographic and right at ten million total viewers. That’s an impressive bow for a series that looked like somewhat of a wild card coming in because of its off-center premise. That also out-performed the Fall premiere of Terra Nova in this same timeslot which pulled a 3.1 rating and just over nine million total viewers. Alcatraz looks poised to deliver the next Lost-like, genre-bending drama even though Abrams insists that it is not as arc-heavy as some would expect. But because the series does rely to some extent on a serialized format and because it veers somewhat from the typical Prime Time fare, expect to to see its numbers drop off in the weeks to come. I would say, though, that as long as this one stays north of a 2.5 rating, it should be good to go for a second season.

And speaking of Terra Nova, still no word on that show’s status even though FOX needs to make a decision soon because of the extended production time needed for its sfx. We will pass along any news we hear on the fate of the show as soon as possible.

On Sunday night, Once Upon A Time took a slide on the ratings in its ongoing Nielsen roller coaster ride of a season. It did not drop that much, though, pulling a 3.3 rating in the 18-49 demo vs. the 3.7 rating it had the prior week. And it did have some pretty serious competition from the Golden Globe awards. Expect this show to continue to fluctuate like this for the rest of the season, but as long as it stays above a 3.0 it should be okay.

I will have the full ratings results for all of this week’s shows in the regular Monday column next week.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers

Cancellation Watch: Most Genre Shows Down, but Person of Interest Starting to Build its Audience

admin — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 17:31:42 +0000

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Cancellation Watch: Tracking the weekly ratings and the cancellation prospects of the science fiction and fantasy shows currently airing on broadcast and cable networks.

By John J. Joex

Most of the genre shows are back from their hiatuses now (and Syfy’s Sanctuary has wrapped up its fourth season), but most are also suffering from ratings attrition. The ratings for The CW shows continue to erode with Supernatural posting what I believe is a series low for a new episode (a 0.6 rating in the 18-49 demographic). Even The Vampire Diaries is hurting, dropping this past week to a 1.2 rating. NBC’s Grimm returned from its hiatus posting a series low of a 1.4 rating. If it continues to head in that direction, its chances of renewal become slimmer. Fringe also returned down, pulling on a 1.1 rating for its mid-season debut, and I covered in last week’s column what FOX exec Kevin Reilly had to say about that show.

Over on CBS, Person of Interest (which finally looks to be building up a story arc) got some good news as it returned from its hiatus with its best performance yet: a 3.2 rating in the 18-49 demo and close to fifteen million total viewers. Of course its performance during the first part of the season seems quite good compared to the other genre shows (averaging a 2.8 rating), but then it airs on top-rated CBS that demands high ratings performance of all its shows. But this is definitely a move in the right direction and I have shifted the Cancellation Alert status of that show down one notch from medium to moderate. Also seeing a bump in the ratings this past week was ABC’s Once Upon A Time which I covered in my mid-week update last week.

Tonight, Syfy’s Being Human returns with its second season and that network will also debut Canadian import Lost Girl (check out our Sci Fi TV Page for the full mid-season schedule of genre shows). Also, Syfy has started airing the fourth season of Merlin on Fridays which returned about where it was last season, a 0.4 rating and 1.6 million total viewers. I don’t give much attention to that show in this column, and the same will be true of Lost Girl (which is heading into its third season in Canada) because they do not rely that much on the ratings in the States for their survival.

Also debuting tonight is FOX’s Alcatraz from J.J. Abrams. I will take a look at its performance and check in on Once Upon A Time in my mid-week update on Wednesday.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers

Cancellation Watch Update: Once Upon A Time Rebounds

admin — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 13:54:47 +0000

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Cancellation Watch: Tracking the weekly ratings and the cancellation prospects of the science fiction and fantasy shows currently airing on broadcast and cable networks.

By John J. Joex

ABC’s fantasy series Once Upon A Time has stopped its ratings slide upon its return from a brief winter hiatus. This last Sunday’s episode scored a healthy 3.7 rating in the 18-49 demographic and over ten million total viewers. That’s a nice bump up from the 2.9 rating the show had in its last outing in December and a good indication that the low viewership tendency of the holiday season is what drove the late-Fall downward slide. I had previously wondered if Once Upon A Time was headed the same direction as other recent ABC genre shows like FlashForward and V, both of which started very strong in the ratings but saw steep declines by season end. But, the latest numbers for Once Upon A Time suggest that won’t be the case for this show. We will need to track it closely over the next few weeks to see if this was just a spike, but the show has a good bit of breathing room at this point. It averaged a 3.6 rating in the 18-49 demo for its Fall run (even factoring in its late decline), and as long as it stays above a 3.0 rating for the rest of the season it should be fine. As I said in my Mid-Season Predictions, count this one as safe for now.

I will have the full ratings results for all of this week’s shows in the regular Monday column next week.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers

Cancellation Watch: FOX Exec Implores Fans Not to Start a Save Fringe Campaign

admin — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 15:25:02 +0000

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Cancellation Watch: Tracking the weekly ratings and the cancellation prospects of the science fiction and fantasy shows currently airing on broadcast and cable networks.

By John J. Joex

The guys over at TV by the Numbers have been covering the network meetings with the Television Critics Association and came upon one nugget related to the fate of Fringe. While nothing has been announced on whether the series will be cancelled after this season, FOX exec Kevin Reilly has admitted that Fringe is losing the network money, though he has pleaded with fans not to start a Save Fringe campaign. The series has been languishing in the Nielsens this season, averaging only a 1.2 rating in the 18-49 demographic, and I currently have it at an Elevated Cancellation Alert status (you can see all my mid-season predictions at this link). I’ve basically expected this to be the final year for the show since the season began. FOX can avoid the Save Out Show campaign, though, if they do right by the series: let it go out on its own terms (and I have now started up a petition lobbying for this). Basically announce now that it will wrap up with this season and maybe even give them a few extra episodes to tie things up. Or do what NBC did last season with Chuck, which was to cancel it (even though they never admitted that) and announce a final, shortened season. The same strategy with Fringe would give the creative team plenty of time to wrap up the loose ends and should satisfy fans (after several years of raucous fan campaigns to keep Chuck on the air, they accepted the final season with little complaint). FOX already knows what is going on with Fringe‘s ratings and there’s no reason to believe the show will see a sudden improvement during the second half of the season. Sure, all of FOX’s shows see a lift when American Idol returns, but Fringe edging up to a 1.3 or even 1.4 average won’t change things much. So they need to make a decision now and not wait until May to cancel it and giving the creative team no chance to wrap up the story. If they do that, a Save Our Show campaign is inevitable.

As far as Terra Nova, there’s no news yet, though Reilly said that the network has made money on the show because it as sold well overseas. FOX will need to make a decision on it pretty soon, though, because it has to start ramping up for a second season due to the extended production time the series requires.

Last week saw the CW shows return from their hiatus with all pulling about the same ratings they have been averaging this season so far. Vampire Diaries was up one tick from where it ended its Fall run back in November, though.

Ratings Results for the Week of January 1st:
Once Upon A Time (Repeat) (ABC Sun 8 pm) Rating: 1.1 | Trend: Down | Cancellation Alert: Low
The Walking Dead (AMC Sun 10 PM) Rating: On Hiatus | Trend: Down | Renewed
Vampire Diaries (CW Thur 8 PM) Rating: 1.5 | Trend: Up | Cancellation Alert: Low
Person of Interest (Repeat) (CBS Thur 9 PM) Rating: 1.7 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Medium
Secret Circle (CW Thur 9 PM) Rating: 0.8 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Low
A Gifted Man (CBS Fri 8 PM) Rating: 1.5 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: High
Nikita (CW Fri 8 PM) Rating: 0.5 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Elevated
Chuck (NBC Fri 8 PM) Rating: 1.0 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Final Season
Supernatural (CW Fri 9 PM) Rating: 0.8 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Low
Grimm (Repeat) (NBC Fri 9 PM) Rating: 0.7 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Moderate
Fringe (Repeat) (FOX Fri 9 PM) Rating: On Hiatus | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Elevated
Sanctuary (Syfy Fri 9 PM) Rating: 0.0 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers

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Cancelation Watch Midweek Update: Terra Nova Finale Brings Little Fanfare

admin — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 14:06:51 +0000

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Cancellation Watch: Tracking the weekly ratings and the cancellation prospects of the science fiction and fantasy shows currently airing on broadcast and cable networks.

By John J. Joex

FOX’s Terra Nova had its season finale on Monday and the good news for the show is that its ratings improved, but the bad news is that they didn’t improve much. The two-hour conclusion to the show’s first season averaged a 2.2 rating in the 18.49 demographic and 7.2 million total viewers. That represented an increase of one tick from the 2.1 rating the show pulled the previous week it’s and nothing to crow about. Now comes a month of guessing on the show’s fate as FOX has said they will announce their plans for the series by mid-January (because it will need to get rolling soon on a second season due to the extended production time the show demands). Terra Nova‘s producers have said that they are “guardedly optimistic” about the show’s fate, and I have to say that it is a complete toss-up at this point. Based solely on its numbers, the show is a strong candidate for cancellation. But since this is such a high-profile series and has Steven Spielberg’s name attached, it still has a chance for a second season pickup. Apparently all involved admit that the show got off to a rough start and it has apparently improved in quality as the season progressed (I have quite a number of episodes on the DVR to catch up with). So maybe FOX rolls the dice and greenlights a second season hoping that it can rebuild the audience it had in its first few weeks. Stay tuned to this site, because the network should make its decision in about a month.

I swore that ABC’s Once Upon A Time still had one more original episode scheduled this year, but they went with a repeat this past Sunday night. Probably a good choice seeing as this is a low viewership time of the season. And that one can hope that the ratings slide it saw over the past few weeks will turnaround when it returns with new episodes in January.

This will be the last Cancellation Watch column of the year seeing as all of the genre shows are now in reruns or on hiatus, unless any breaking announcements hit in the next two weeks. I will kick-off 2012 with my mid-season predictions and return with ratings results in the second week of January.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers

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Cancellation Watch: Person of Interest Still Hanging On

admin — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 14:22:18 +0000

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Cancellation Watch: Tracking the weekly ratings and the cancellation prospects of the science fiction and fantasy shows currently airing on broadcast and cable networks.

By John J. Joex

I already coverd what’s going on with Once Upon A Time and Terra Nova in my mid-week update last week, and with most of the other genre shows on hiatus or in repeats, there was not too much going on with last week’s ratings. Of interest, though, the J.J. Abrams show Person of interest has been able to hold on to its audience with new episodes despite this being a low viewership time of year (which is what I am currently blaming for Once Upon A Time’s decrease). Amidst reruns and holiday specials, Person of Interest managed to win its timeslot last Thursday, something it has not done all season, while pulling a 2.8 rating in the 18-49 demographic and close to thirteen million total viewers. Of course key to this show’s survival is how well it does starting January, once the holiday break has passed.

Over on FX, The American Horror Story dropped a bit in its second to last episode for its first season, pulling a 1.4 rating in the 18-49 demo and 2.6 million total viewers. And on NBC, Grimm slipped one tick from the 1.6 rating it has averaged the last few weeks. Still, it won out its timeslot (first time this season) against reruns and specials.

For FOX’s Terra Nova, tonight is a key night as it has its two-hour season finale. That show has continued to decline in the ratings as we have documented here and needs to have a strong performance with its finale if it wants to have any hope of returning for a second season. Check back here on Wednesday for the mid-week update when we will bring you the numbers for that episode and the most recent installment of Once Upon A Time.

Once Upon A Time (ABC Sun 8 pm) Rating: 2.9 | Trend: Down | Cancellation Alert: Low
The Walking Dead (AMC Sun 10 PM) Rating: On Hiatus | Trend: Down | Renewed
Terra Nova (FOX Mon 8 PM) Rating: 2.1 | Trend: Down | Cancellation Alert: Moderate
The American Horror Story (FX Wed 10 PM) Rating: 1.4 | Trend: Down | Renewed
Vampire Diaries (Repeat) (CW Thur 8 PM) Rating: 0.3 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Low
Person of Interest (CBS Thur 9 PM) Rating: 2.8 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Moderate
Secret Circle (Repeat) (CW Thur 9 PM) Rating: 0.3 | Trend: Down | Cancellation Alert: Low
A Gifted Man (Repeat) (CBS Fri 8 PM) Rating: 0.8 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Medium
Nikita (Repeat) (CW Fri 8 PM) Rating: 0.4 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Medium
Chuck (NBC Fri 8 PM) Rating: 0.9 | Trend: Down | Cancellation Alert: Final Season
Supernatural (Repeat) (CW Fri 9 PM) Rating: 0.4 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Low
Grimm (NBC Fri 9 PM) Rating: 1.5 | Trend: Down | Cancellation Alert: Moderate
Fringe (FOX Fri 9 PM) Rating: On Hiatus | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Medium
Sanctuary (Syfy Fri 9 PM) Rating: 0.0 | Trend: Steady | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers

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